Research

The bug that made my model wrong on every intraday chart

Daily-fitted constants applied unchanged to intraday bars left the Kalman gain flat and GARCH persistence 6x to 24x too fast.

Ganesh Tilekar · DATE · ~N min read

WRITE THE OPENING HERE. Say what happened, in one paragraph, before explaining anything. The reader should know the finding before they know the method.

What I expected

What I measured

Why I think it happened

What I did about it

Every figure here is a backtest on daily BINANCE:BTCUSDT bars with commission at 0.045% a side. There is no live track record. Forward results will be worse. The full manual sets out every setting and what changing it costs.